A Double-Edged Sword: Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Caution

Most empirical studies of the effects of nuclear weapons treat these weapons as a binary variable, but there are strong reasons to think that the effects of a state’s nuclear arsenal are conditioned by that state’s policies. I argue that the effect of nuclear weapons in non-existential disputes is determined by what I call nuclear risk: the overall likelihood that these weapons may be used without authorization by political leaders. Using a formal model, I hypothesize that higher nuclear risk leads to greater deterrent power, but it also makes the leaders of the nuclear state more cautious if their deterrence fails. I test these two hypotheses using the Correlates of War data. I first measure nuclear risk using a simple index, and then propose a novel technique for imputing risk. Both hypotheses are borne out by empirical results.